🇪🇳 The Golden Tide: Gold predicted to hit US$5,000 per ounce by 2026 amid fiscal and geopolitical instability. Learn why experts see the metal as the ultimate safe haven.

Why $\text{US} 5,000$ per Troy Ounce for Gold in 2026 is a Serious Possibility

By: Túlio Whitman | Diário Reporter

The global financial landscape is characterized by a pervasive sense of unease. From persistent geopolitical conflicts to escalating fiscal challenges faced by major global economies, particularly the United States, the investment community is searching for reliable anchors.

It is in this environment of pronounced uncertainty that a bold forecast has emerged, capturing the attention of the markets. Rafael Furlanetti, President of Ancord, has articulated a compelling outlook: gold is positioned to reach the extraordinary mark of $\text{US} 5,000$ per troy ounce by 2026. This projection is not merely speculative; it is rooted in the observable flight to real assets as investors seek sanctuary from market volatility. I, Túlio Whitman, analyze the dynamics of this flight to safety, where gold’s historical role as a secure harbor is once again taking center stage, particularly during what some perceive as a deceptive "lull" in the American economy. As reported by CNN Money in October 2025, Furlanetti's perspective highlights how the precious metal serves as an essential protector of wealth in times when traditional financial instruments are viewed with skepticism.

As reported by CNN Money in 13 de out. de 2025 October 2025

The $\text{US} 5,000$ Milestone: An Analysis of Market Drivers

Furlanetti's forecast is far from an isolated opinion. It aligns with a growing consensus among major financial institutions and consultancies that see a clear trajectory for gold's upward momentum. This trend is not driven by a single factor, but by a powerful confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. The core argument rests on the simple principle of scarcity, coupled with unrelenting global demand in a climate of escalating risk. The supply of physical gold, notoriously inelastic, cannot quickly adapt to a sudden surge in demand, which—when combined with the massive liquidity injected into the global economy since the 2020 pandemic—creates a potent inflationary cocktail. This dynamic sets the stage for a continued bull run, making the $\text{US} 5,000$ target a highly plausible, rather than exceptional, outcome. The continuous erosion of confidence in fiat currencies, particularly the dollar due to mounting fiscal deficits, is fueling this migration to an asset that has held its intrinsic value for millennia.

🔍 Zooming in on Reality

The reality of the current economic environment is defined by two major, interconnected stressors: geopolitical instability and fiscal indiscipline, especially within the world's largest economy. Geopolitical tensions, ranging from regional conflicts to complex global trade disputes, inject a level of unpredictability that fundamentally alters investor behavior. In such a fragmented and precarious world, capital does not seek growth alone; it seeks preservation. Gold, with its zero-counterparty risk, becomes the default choice for this preservation instinct.

Furlanetti specifically mentioned the growing fiscal risk in the United States. The sheer size of the national debt and the recurring need for the government to spend more than it collects fundamentally devalues the currency over the long term. This deficit spending, as pointed out by analysts, acts as a perpetual mechanism for currency dilution. The analogy of the "rooster's flight" (voo de galinha)—a short, unsustainable burst of activity—is apt when describing economic growth fueled by uncontrolled debt. The market, Furlanetti contends, looks at the film (the long-term trajectory of unsustainable debt) rather than just the snapshot (short-term market performance). This long-term perspective is what underpins the expectation for gold to climb to $\text{US} 5,000$ .

The migration to real assets is a clear, tangible reaction to this instability. It’s an investment strategy that seeks to escape the volatility of paper assets and the debasement of currency. The fundamental issue is one of trust: when governments consistently demonstrate an inability or unwillingness to manage their debt responsibly, investors seek an asset that cannot be printed. The physical scarcity of gold—with the total historical production filling only about two Olympic-sized swimming pools—reinforces its value proposition. This block's foundation rests on the fact that uncertainty is not a temporary factor; it is the new normal, structurally embedding gold's role as a primary safe haven.

📊 Panorama in Numbers

The quantitative argument for $\text{US} 5,000$ gold is supported by a multitude of high-profile financial institutions. The forecasts from major banks and consultancies paint a picture of relentless upward pressure:

Bank of America (BofA): Predicted gold could average $\text{US} 4,538$ per ounce in 2026, with the potential to reach the $\text{US} 5,000$ peak amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. They highlight that the bull market is driven by physical scarcity across the precious metals complex.
Deutsche Bank: Projects gold may come close to the $\text{US} 5,000$ level in 2026 and surpass it in 2027, citing central bank demand as the chief driver.
HSBC: Forecasts gold prices could reach $\text{US} 5,000$ per ounce in the first half of 2026, supported by elevated geopolitical risks and the enduring appeal of its safe haven qualities. Their average 2026 forecast was raised to $\text{US} 4,600$ .
Metals Focus: This UK-based consultancy expects gold to challenge the $\text{US} 5,000$ level in 2026, forecasting an average price of $\text{US} 4,560$ per ounce for the year, representing a significant upside over 2025 levels.

This quantitative convergence around the $\text{US} 5,000$ target is historically significant. It suggests that the market is factoring in a severe and prolonged scenario of instability. Furthermore, the role of central banks is numerically crucial. Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for years, diverting supply away from other sectors like jewelry and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This institutional purchasing spree is a direct vote of no confidence in the prevailing global financial system. The physical nature of this demand—gold leaving commercial vaults and moving into central bank reserves—constitutes a structural constraint on supply, making the price inelastic to minor market corrections. The sheer volume of liquidity creation by the American Federal Reserve since the pandemic, expanding its balance sheet from approximately $\text{US} 4.5$ trillion to nearly $\text{US} 9$ trillion, has been a key driver, fundamentally altering the confidence contract of the dollar. These numbers do not lie: they reflect a systemic move towards an asset that is seen as a universal measure of value.

💬 What They Are Saying

The dialogue surrounding the $\text{US} 5,000$ gold price is multifaceted, encompassing both bullish consensus and cautious skepticism. The overwhelming sentiment, as noted above, is one of increasing optimism, driven by the persistent themes of debt and risk.

The Bullish Argument (The Safe Haven): Many analysts and institutions emphasize that the current gold rally is fundamentally different from previous cycles. HSBC, for instance, noted that unlike prior rallies, many of the new buyers are likely to remain in the gold space—not just for appreciation, but for gold's inherent diversification and safe-haven qualities. This suggests a permanent structural shift in asset allocation. Another key voice, Goldman Sachs, projects a scenario where private investors join central banks, pushing the price far beyond initial conservative forecasts. The core of this consensus is that gold acts as a hedge against the inevitable, long-term economic debasement caused by unchecked governmental spending. They view the $\text{US} 5,000$ as the next logical milestone in a multi-year trend driven by increasing systemic risk.

The Skeptical Counterpoint (The Price Peak): While the bullish predictions dominate the headlines, some professionals caution that the rally could pause or undergo a significant correction. A survey by the Kobeissi Letter revealed that only 5 per cent of global fund managers believed gold prices would exceed $\text{US} 5,000$ by the end of 2026, with a larger segment expecting prices to trade in the $\text{US} 4,000$ to $\text{US} 4,500$ range. This more cautious group typically highlights the possibility of geopolitical stabilization or a renewed, albeit perhaps temporary, confidence in the American dollar. They focus on the short-term noise, suggesting that if the Federal Reserve were to adopt a more fiscally disciplined stance or if global conflict tensions were to ease substantially, the safe-haven demand might diminish. However, even these cautionary views often acknowledge the strong technical targets for gold, recognizing $\text{US} 5,000$ as a critical Fibonacci extension target.

🧭 Possible Paths

For the investor considering the future of gold, there are several possible paths the market could take, each shaped by the dominant global forces:

Path 1: The Fiscal Meltdown (Rapid Ascent to $\text{US} 5,000$ and Beyond): This scenario aligns most closely with Furlanetti's warning. If the United States fails to address its burgeoning fiscal deficit and geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, confidence in the dollar could accelerate its decline. In this environment, central banks and institutional money would intensify their flight to gold. The price would not only hit $\text{US} 5,000$ but could quickly move toward more aggressive targets like $\text{US} 5,500$ or $\text{US} 6,000$ by the end of 2026. This would represent a systemic re-rating of gold as a primary global reserve asset, signaling a profound shift in the architecture of the international financial system.

Path 2: The Managed Correction (Volatile Consolidation followed by Growth): In this path, central banks manage to stabilize inflation without triggering a severe recession, or some geopolitical tensions are temporarily eased. Gold's price could experience a period of volatile consolidation, perhaps trading between $\text{US} 4,000$ and $\text{US} 4,500$ . However, because the underlying structural issues—national debt and inelastic supply—remain unresolved, the price momentum would still be fundamentally upward. $\text{US} 5,000$ would be reached, but later in 2026 or early 2027. This path emphasizes the long-term trend over the short-term movements, making Dollar-Cost Averaging a recommended strategy.

Path 3: The Unlikely Normalization (Stagnation/Pullback): This highly improbable scenario would require a sudden, sustained reduction in global risk—a comprehensive resolution of major conflicts and a concerted, credible effort by governments like the United States to rein in fiscal spending. Gold prices would likely stagnate around the $\text{US} 3,500$ level or retreat. Most analysts, however, consider this scenario unlikely given the entrenched nature of current geopolitical and fiscal crises. For the foreseeable future, the market is pricing in risk, making this path a low-probability outlier.

🧠 Food for Thought…

The discussion about gold hitting $\text{US} 5,000$ in 2026 compels a deeper philosophical and economic reflection. Is gold's current rally merely a cyclical peak, or does it represent a fundamental reevaluation of what constitutes "safe" in the modern world?

For centuries, the value of gold has been an inversely proportional measure of confidence in fiat currency. The current surge is a stark measure of how much trust the global financial community has lost in the ability of governments to responsibly manage their monetary and fiscal affairs. The sheer scale of sovereign debt worldwide, alongside the pervasive use of sanctions and financial warfare, highlights the vulnerability of assets tied to any single national jurisdiction or banking system. Gold, precisely because it is nobody’s liability and exists outside the digital grid of modern finance, stands as the ultimate counter-asset.

The question for investors and policymakers alike is: What happens to the global economy when the accepted measure of "safety" is an inert metal, rather than the debt of the world's reserve currency issuer? A $\text{US} 5,000$ gold price would not just be a financial headline; it would be a political statement—a tangible symbol of the cost of unprecedented monetary expansion and unchecked fiscal deficits. It forces a critical confrontation with the unsustainable nature of current economic policy. It demands a serious consideration of alternatives, including other precious metals like silver, which often outperforms gold in percentage terms during a bull run, and the nascent, yet controversial, role of digital scarcity assets.

📚 Point of Departure

The starting point for understanding gold's appeal is its enduring status as a store of value—a title it has held for over 5,000 years. This history is not merely anecdotal; it is the fundamental mechanism that allows gold to function as a safe harbor during financial crises.

The primary drivers propelling gold toward the $\text{US} 5,000$ target can be categorized into three pillars, serving as the essential background knowledge for any engaged investor:

Macroeconomic Instability: This includes persistent, high inflation globally, fueled by massive post-pandemic stimulus and supply chain disruptions. Gold is a classic hedge against inflation because its value tends to rise as the purchasing power of paper money declines.
Geopolitical Risk and De-dollarization: Geopolitical conflicts and the increasing weaponization of the American dollar have prompted central banks, particularly in the Global South, to diversify their reserves away from the American currency. This strategic de-dollarization translates directly into increased, systematic buying of gold. As Deutsche Bank notes, buying interest from central banks is here to stay.
Inelastic Supply: The production of new, mined gold is slow and capital-intensive. Unlike government-issued currency, its supply cannot be ramped up quickly to meet demand. This inherent scarcity ensures that increased demand primarily translates into higher prices, creating a powerful floor under the market.

For the investor, the point of departure is recognizing that gold is not an investment for yield, but an insurance policy for wealth preservation. Its movement toward $\text{US} 5,000$ is a reflection of the market’s growing concern about the integrity of the world’s financial institutions, not just a simple commodity boom.

📦 Informative Box 📚 Did You Know?

Did you know that the gold price forecast of $\text{US} 5,000$ per troy ounce is supported by historical performance relative to central bank liquidity?

The price of gold has long maintained an inverse correlation with the perceived stability of the dollar and the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. When the American central bank injects significant liquidity into the market (a form of quantitative easing, which dilutes the value of each dollar), gold tends to surge.

Key Data Point: Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion was followed by a massive gold rally. The expansion since 2020 has been even more aggressive. When the balance sheet expanded from $\text{US} 4.5$ trillion to nearly $\text{US} 9$ trillion, the price of gold followed suit, hitting multiple record highs.

This relationship demonstrates a structural reality: an increase in paper money without a corresponding increase in real assets (like gold) necessarily drives the price of those scarce assets higher. The $\text{US} 5,000$ prediction is essentially a mathematical projection of the continuing devaluation of the dollar based on the current fiscal trajectory. Furthermore, the consensus for $\text{US} 5,000$ is shared across a broad spectrum of financial institutions, indicating that this is not a fringe view but a mainstream institutional projection. This widespread agreement gives the forecast significant weight and should not be dismissed as mere speculation. The historical and quantitative evidence suggests that a price of $\text{US} 5,000$ is simply a new equilibrium reflecting the new reality of global debt and liquidity.

🗺️ From Here to Where?

The path from the current price to $\text{US} 5,000$ is not a straight line, but the long-term destination seems clearly marked. The critical question for investors is no longer if gold will reach this level, but what role it will play in portfolios once it gets there.

The trajectory for gold suggests a future where it is increasingly used not just as a defensive asset, but as an offensive strategic asset in the context of portfolio diversification.

In the Short Term (2025): The market will be highly sensitive to Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and any apparent shifts in geopolitical stability. Short-term corrections may occur, offering entry points for long-term investors. Expect high volatility but persistent strength.
In the Medium Term (2026 - 2027): This is the window where the $\text{US} 5,000$ target is most likely to be realized. The key drivers will be the election cycle in major economies and the continued, systematic buying by central banks who are committed to de-risking their sovereign reserves. The focus will shift from risk to scarcity as the primary price driver.
In the Long Term (Beyond 2027): If gold successfully breaches and holds the $\text{US} 5,000$ level, it fundamentally changes the market's perception of the metal. It will cement gold’s role as an indispensable core holding, leading to further price exploration towards $\text{US} 6,000$ and beyond, driven by the ultimate fear of systemic financial collapse or a major currency crisis. The destination is a global financial system where the stability of paper assets is perpetually questioned, and gold is the de facto benchmark for long-term purchasing power.

🌐 It’s on the Network, It’s Online

“O povo posta, a gente pensa. It’s on the network, it’s online!”

The online discourse surrounding the gold price is a perfect barometer of the shift in investor sentiment, moving from fringe anxiety to mainstream institutional consensus. Social media, specialized financial forums, and online news outlets are abuzz with the $\text{US} 5,000$ forecast.

Institutional Acceptance: Major financial media outlets are now routinely reporting on the $\text{US} 5,000$ prediction from banks like BofA and HSBC. This signals that the idea has crossed the Rubicon from outlier prediction to a credible, analyzed scenario. The online conversation has normalized the idea of gold as an asset that will continue to set new record highs for the foreseeable future.

The Retail Investor’s View: Retail investors, often skeptical of traditional banking, are increasingly drawn to gold and silver as a defense against inflation, which they feel directly. Online communities frequently discuss the "scarcity trade," focusing on the inability of central banks to print more of the physical metal. The narrative online is clear: gold is a hedge against government overreach and monetary mismanagement. The discussion often involves comparisons to digital assets, but the core appeal of gold remains its physical, tangible nature and its historical precedent for surviving every crisis. The online network provides a crucial sounding board, confirming that the consensus for $\text{US} 5,000$ is not a manufactured banking narrative, but a market-wide fear of financial and political instability.

🔗 Knowledge Anchor

To truly grasp the intricate, complex calculus of global financial consolidation—a context that profoundly affects the value of assets like gold—it is essential to delve deeper into the systemic factors driving investor fear and strategic portfolio adjustments. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anyone seeking to protect their wealth in the current environment. To gain a broader perspective on the systemic risks that underpin the forecast for gold hitting $\text{US} 5,000$ by 2026, we invite you to continue your reading and analysis by analyzing the complex calculus of consolidation here.

Reflection

The journey of gold toward $\text{US} 5,000$ per troy ounce is far more than a simple commodity price rally; it is a profound commentary on the state of the world economy. It is a market mechanism, translating geopolitical tension, unsustainable debt, and the erosion of fiat currency confidence into tangible asset value. The gold price, in this sense, acts as a global financial thermometer, and its reading is currently indicating a fever of uncertainty. For the investor, this moment calls for a measured, critical approach, recognizing that the long-term protection of wealth requires moving beyond conventional wisdom and embracing the timeless refuge of real, scarce assets. The safe harbor is visible, and the tide is rising.

Featured Resources and Sources/Bibliography

CNN Brasil Money: Ouro deve bater $\text{US} 5$ mil por onça-troy em 2026, diz Furlanetti à CNN. (October 13, 2025).
Bank of America: Various reports on precious metals forecast, specifically highlighting the $\text{US} 5,000$ peak target for 2026.
Deutsche Bank: Market analysis citing central bank demand as a primary driver for a $\text{US} 5,000$ price target by 2027.
HSBC: Global Metals Forecast reports, raising the 2026 average gold price forecast and predicting a $\text{US} 5,000$ high.
Metals Focus: Annual precious metals reports, predicting gold to challenge the $\text{US} 5,000$ level in 2026.

⚖️ Editorial Disclaimer

This article reflects a critical and opinionated analysis produced for the Carlos Santos Diary, based on public information, reports, and data from sources considered reliable, including the October 2025 commentary by Ancord President Rafael Furlanetti to CNN Money. It represents an interpretation of market dynamics and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or the institutional position of any companies or entities that may be mentioned herein. All investment decisions carry risk, and the appreciation or depreciation of any asset, including gold, is not guaranteed. The reader is responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a certified financial professional before making any investment choices.