Analysis of the 'American Fortress' thesis: Why the US will dominate the next decade through monopolies in AI, the dollar, and energy.
The American Fortress: Why the Next Decade is Already Booked by the United States
By: Carlos Santos
For decades, the global financial community has debated the decline of American economic power, often predicting the rise of new dominant forces, be it China, a unified Europe, or even a consortium of emerging nations. Yet, time and again, the United States has not only survived its crises but has used them as a springboard for higher levels of supremacy. This enduring resilience is not a mere accident of history; it is built upon structural pillars that are virtually impossible for any rival to replicate. As Carlos Santos, I believe the thesis that "The American Fortress" is solidifying its grip on the next decade, as articulated by columnist Walter Maciel, is a necessary challenge to the widely accepted narrative of inevitable decline. It forces us to reassess where real power and innovation reside, and how the investment landscape will be shaped by this continued dominance.
This compelling argument, recently brought to light in a column on the InfoMoney platform, suggests that the U.S. controls several fundamental 'monopolies' that guarantee its economic and technological leadership for the foreseeable future, making the talk of a "Chinese century" appear premature based on the underlying arithmetic.
Deciphering the Monopolies of Power
🔍 Zoom in on the Reality
The current global reality is defined by a shift in perception: the United States is not in decline; it is consolidating its power in key strategic areas. The term "American Fortress" succinctly captures the country's unique position, built on a series of structural monopolies—not in the classical anti-trust sense, but in terms of unassailable competitive advantages.
The core of this reality lies in the Monopoly of Innovation. The technological gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world, far from shrinking, is widening, particularly in disruptive fields like Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to market data and the cited analysis, over 90% of disruptive AI innovations in recent years have originated from the U.S. This dominance isn't just about Silicon Valley's massive venture capital or its concentration of tech giants; it's about a complete ecosystem—a cultural foundation that tolerates failure, world-class universities, and an immigration policy (despite political rhetoric) that remains the most attractive to global talent. This self-reinforcing loop ensures that the next wave of economic growth, propelled by technology, will primarily benefit American companies and, by extension, the American economy.
Furthermore, the Monopoly of the Dollar acts as the ultimate stabilizer. Despite continuous predictions of its demise, the U.S. dollar remains the cornerstone of global finance. Approximately 59% of global reserves are held in dollars (Source: IMF COFER, 2023), and the currency is involved in 88% of all global foreign exchange transactions (Source: BIS, 2022). This status provides the U.S. with immense leverage, allowing it to finance its debt more cheaply and exert significant geopolitical influence through sanctions and financial mechanisms. This is the structural reality: any country or investor seeking stability inevitably returns to the dollar in times of crisis, ironically strengthening the very structure critics declare obsolete.
The American economic reality, therefore, is one of cumulative advantage, where technology drives productivity, and the financial strength of the dollar ensures the necessary capital flows to maintain that technological edge.
📊 Panorama in Numbers
To grasp the quantitative measure of the "American Fortress," one must look beyond GDP comparisons and focus on the structural metrics that define long-term dominance.
Key Numerical Pillars of U.S. Supremacy:
| Metric | United States | Closest Rival (China/EU) | Implication for the Next Decade | Source |
| Share of Global FX Transactions | (Not directly comparable) | Unassailable dominance of the global financial system. | BIS (2022) | |
| Share of Global AI Investment | Consistently | Varies, but significantly lower | Monopoly on the next generation of productivity growth. | Various Tech Reports |
| Energy Status (2023) | Net Exporter (Record High) | Net Importers (Majority) | Energy Self-Sufficiency/Monopoly: Lowers economic vulnerability and provides export leverage. | U.S. EIA (2023) |
| Venture Capital Investment (Total) | China: | Fuel for disruptive innovation and new business formation. | Pitchbook/Global Reports |
The Demographic Advantage: While many developed economies face demographic decline, the U.S. possesses a unique demographic profile. Its population growth, driven in large part by continuous selective immigration, acts as a structural tailwind for economic expansion. A younger, growing workforce (compared to the rapidly aging populations of Europe and Japan, and the looming demographic cliff in China) translates directly into a more dynamic consumer base and a lower dependency ratio. This Monopoly of Demography is an often-overlooked numerical advantage.
The Productivity Spike: Recent data indicates a robust return to higher productivity growth, particularly since the pandemic. This spike, often attributed to the accelerated adoption of digital technologies and the early stages of the AI revolution, has allowed the U.S. economy to grow at a solid pace (projected at 1.8% to 1.9% in 2025 by some institutions) while navigating inflation without falling into a deep recession (Source: CaixaBank Research, PIIE). This numerical resilience, far exceeding projections for other large, advanced economies, is the most tangible proof that the U.S. is "leveling up."
💬 What They're Saying Out There
The financial and geopolitical discourse is increasingly aligning with the "American Fortress" thesis, moving away from the "inevitable decline" narrative. The consensus among serious strategists focuses on the structural, not the cyclical, elements of U.S. power.
JPMorgan analysts, for example, have highlighted a "newfound business dynamism" that emerged during the post-pandemic period. They point to the shift to remote work and a surge in new business formations as creating a foundation for sustained economic growth that is not seen in other developed markets. This suggests a systemic, self-correction mechanism in the U.S. economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), while cautioning about global risks, noted the "unexpected resilience" of the world economy, largely driven by the strong performance of the U.S. economy. However, the IMF also sounds a warning note, highlighting risks to U.S. growth from any significant crackdown on legal skilled immigration, which could cut labor force growth and impede economic expansion. This reinforces the idea that the demographic advantage is an intentional policy choice.
Goldman Sachs has consistently recommended an "overweight" position on U.S. equities in investment portfolios, citing the combination of geographical advantages, a robust governance structure, and a distinct risk-taking, entrepreneurial culture that underpins its innovative edge.
The prevailing sentiment is a complex mixture: there is a recognition of the economic, technological, and financial dominance of the U.S., but also an awareness that this dominance is not guaranteed. It relies on the continuous inflow of global talent and capital, and the maintenance of its innovation ecosystem. The "champions" of the next decade—the AI companies, the clean energy innovators—are predominantly American, and the market knows it. The key quote often heard in financial circles is: "In times of global uncertainty, you invest in what's boring and safe, or what's disruptive and dominant. The U.S. offers both."
🧭 Possible Paths
For investors and global strategists, understanding the "American Fortress" thesis dictates a set of possible paths for capital allocation over the next decade.
Path 1: Overweighting U.S. Equities (The Core Bet)
The most direct path is to maintain a significant, or even increased, exposure to U.S. equities, especially in sectors that leverage the structural monopolies:
Technology & Innovation: Focus on companies leading in AI, cloud computing, and advanced manufacturing (those benefiting from the CHIPS and Science Act investments). These companies represent the Monopoly of Innovation.
Energy/Industrials: Exposure to the U.S. energy sector, which benefits from the Monopoly of Energy (net exporter status), providing a defensive hedge and geopolitical leverage.
Path 2: Embracing Dollar Strength (The Defensive Hedge)
The continuous strengthening of the dollar (the Monopoly of the Dollar) as a global reserve and safe-haven currency necessitates:
Global Diversification in USD: For investors outside the U.S., holding a portion of assets (e.g., bonds, real estate) denominated in dollars acts as a crucial currency hedge against the devaluation of local currencies.
U.S. Treasury Securities: These remain the global standard for low-risk fixed income, attracting massive capital flows during any global crisis, further reinforcing the fortress.
Path 3: Selective Emerging Markets (The High-Risk Alpha)
The U.S. dominance does not preclude all emerging markets. The path here is highly selective:
Commodity Exporters (Brazil/Latam): These markets can benefit from the U.S.-led global growth via demand for raw materials, but are vulnerable to the strong dollar.
Geopolitically Aligned Allies: Countries positioned to benefit from supply chain realignment away from rivals (e.g., Mexico, Vietnam) as part of the broader U.S. strategy (the Monopoly of Alliances). This path demands higher risk tolerance but offers the potential for superior returns (alpha). The key is to select those that are not on the opposite side of U.S. strategic interests.
🧠 To Ponder…
The central point for reflection is this: If the American Fortress is real, where does this leave the rest of the world, and what is the hidden cost of this dominance?
The Cost of "Financial Gravity": The perpetual strength of the U.S. dollar and the stability of its Treasury market create a massive pull of capital—a sort of "financial gravity" that constantly drains liquidity and investment away from other regions, particularly emerging markets. For countries like Brazil, this means competing with the world's most attractive risk-free asset (U.S. Treasuries) by offering incredibly high domestic interest rates, which in turn stifles internal growth. The hidden cost of the American Fortress is slower, more constrained growth for those outside its walls.
The Paradox of Openness: The U.S. advantage is fundamentally rooted in its openness to talent, capital, and ideas. Yet, political pressures periodically threaten this monopoly, particularly regarding immigration. The moment the U.S. turns inward and compromises its ability to attract the "best and brightest" from around the world, the thesis of continued dominance is jeopardized. The reflection for U.S. policy-makers must be: Can the nation maintain its political identity while simultaneously requiring global talent to sustain its economic machine?
The Investor's Dilemma: For the global investor, the thought process must shift from where the U.S. will fall to how the U.S. will maintain its lead. Investing in the next decade, therefore, means accepting that the highest probability bet is on the U.S. and its aligned spheres of influence, while recognizing that any bet against this trend requires a massive, structural failure of one or more of the American monopolies. This acceptance is the critical lens through which all other investment decisions must be filtered.
📚 Starting Point
For any investor structuring a portfolio based on the premise of U.S. dominance, the starting point is a deep appreciation of the systemic nature of the American economy, particularly its capacity for self-correction and innovation.
Actionable Starting Points for Investment:
Understand the Ecosystem, Not Just the Stocks: The initial focus should not be on a single stock, but on the sectors that define U.S. structural power. This means exposure to broad-based technology ETFs (Nasdaq-100/S&P 500) that capture the Monopoly of Innovation. Investors should prioritize low-cost, diversified funds that track these indices, providing immediate exposure to the economic engine.
Hedge with the Currency: For non-U.S. investors, the first step towards a long-term, stable portfolio is to establish a core holding in the Monopoly of the Dollar. This can be achieved through U.S. Fixed Income products or even currency-hedged ETFs for diversification purposes. The goal is to separate the currency risk of the home country from the capital appreciation of the core U.S. investment.
The "America First" Policy Investments: Identify companies poised to benefit directly from U.S. policy and geopolitical shifts. The reshoring of manufacturing, the push for energy independence, and massive infrastructure spending (driven by acts like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Bill) create specific investment themes in materials, industrial services, and domestic energy production. This is a crucial step for capitalizing on government-backed growth.
Embrace Volatility as Entry Point: The U.S. market, while dominant, is not immune to sharp corrections. The starting point must include the discipline to use these moments of panic (often triggered by external events or Fed policy confusion) as opportunities to add to core positions at discounted prices, rather than selling into the fear.
The correct starting point is always grounded in the knowledge that you are investing in a system built for long-term survival and exponential growth.
📦 Informative Box 📚 Did You Know?
The concept of the "American Fortress" is not just about its massive economy; it's about the synergy between its financial might and its military/geopolitical alliances.
Did you know that the Monopoly of Alliances is an economic weapon as much as a defense strategy?
The network of alliances that the U.S. maintains (NATO, major trade partners, security agreements) serves a dual purpose:
Security and Stability: It guarantees a stable environment for global trade and energy supply, which directly benefits the financial markets.
Economic Exclusion: It provides the U.S. with the unparalleled ability to shape global supply chains and trade rules.
The Petrodollar and Energy Security: The U.S. Monopoly of Energy (being a net exporter of oil and gas) is a recent but powerful addition to the fortress. For decades, the stability of the dollar was linked to the Petrodollar System (oil traded in USD). Now, its own energy independence means it is less vulnerable to global oil shocks, while its ability to export LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) to allies like Europe gives it a massive geopolitical weapon. The U.S. can exert influence, support its allies, and still maintain its own energy security, a status no rival can currently claim.
The Financial Infrastructure: The depth and transparency of the U.S. financial market infrastructure (its exchanges, regulatory bodies, and legal framework) mean that it is the only place where global capital can be deployed and protected with the greatest degree of security. Every time a global conflict erupts, or a rival economy faces regulatory crackdown, the world’s wealth rushes to U.S. assets. This continuous, crisis-driven capital inflow is a structural advantage that perpetually reinforces the fortress. In short, the U.S. provides the safest and most innovative place to park money—a combination that is structurally unbeatable.
🗺️ Where to Go From Here?
The trajectory of the "American Fortress" suggests a continuation of the trend: deeper integration of the U.S. economy with the most innovative sectors globally, and a structural divergence from less dynamic economies.
The Technological Frontier: The next phase will be dominated by the practical deployment of Artificial Intelligence. From here, the U.S. will solidify its lead by translating its AI research dominance into tangible productivity gains across all sectors—healthcare, finance, logistics, and manufacturing. This AI-driven productivity increase will be the single largest factor separating the U.S. growth rate from its global peers. Expect a significant increase in corporate profitability driven by AI adoption, particularly in the tech giants.
The Geopolitical Pivot: We are moving toward a period where economic and investment decisions will be increasingly influenced by geopolitical alignment. The U.S. will continue to use its Monopoly of Alliances to steer global capital and supply chains towards friendly nations (friend-shoring).
For investors: This means assessing a country not just by its fundamentals, but by its relationship with Washington. Countries that are strategic partners for defense, supply chains, or energy will see a disproportionate benefit from U.S. corporate investment and capital flows.
For the U.S.: The focus will be on maintaining a stable trade and security environment for its key partners, further isolating its strategic rivals.
The Dollar’s Future: The dollar will remain the unchallenged global reserve currency. From here, the U.S. is highly likely to continue managing its fiscal deficits because the global demand for the dollar is inelastic. Global demand for U.S. Treasuries acts as a constant foreign subsidy for American government spending, a unique privilege that ensures the fortress can afford to invest heavily in its own future (infrastructure, R&D, and defense). The destination is a world where U.S. financial policy remains the de facto global interest rate setter.
🌐 It's on the Net, It's Online
"The people post, we think. It's on the net, it's online!"
The online sphere, from financial news portals to FinTwit (Financial Twitter) and investment subreddits, has been a vibrant arena for discussing the U.S. economic outlook. The "American Fortress" narrative resonates strongly with a core group of investors who have seen U.S. equities outperform over the last decade.
The Online Buzz:
The AI Mega-Narrative: The dominant online trend is the belief that AI is the definitive game-changer. Discussions revolve around the valuation of the "Magnificent Seven" (the largest U.S. tech companies) and whether their current market capitalization accurately reflects the scale of the Monopoly of Innovation. The consensus is often a slightly nervous bullishness, arguing that "this time is different" due to the magnitude of the AI shift.
The "De-dollarization" Skepticism: While the narrative of "de-dollarization" remains a favorite topic in some corners, particularly those focused on geopolitical rivalry, the reality of the numbers keeps the skepticism high. Every time a crisis hits, the data (IMF/BIS) showing the dollar's stability goes viral, serving as a powerful counter-narrative to the idea of an imminent dollar collapse.
The TINA Effect: The widely circulated acronym TINA (There Is No Alternative) is the online embodiment of the American Fortress thesis. It posits that, given the economic challenges in Europe, the demographic issues in China, and the volatility in emerging markets, U.S. assets are simply the best-positioned class globally. This sentiment drives retail and institutional flows alike, amplifying the market’s concentration in U.S. assets.
Our Analysis: The online world, in this case, correctly reflects the underlying flow of capital. While social media can be prone to herd behavior, the consistent outperformance of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ is a tangible fact that the online narrative reflects. The "people post" about U.S. dominance because the returns are undeniable. The risk is that this certainty can breed complacency. The smart investor must engage with the online sentiment to gauge the market's pulse but must always challenge the TINA narrative by ensuring their portfolio is hedged against the potential, however remote, of a U.S. policy misstep.
🔗 Anchor of Knowledge
The structural advantages that define the American Fortress—innovation, the dollar, and energy independence—are not static; they are constantly being reinforced by domestic policy and the global flow of capital. This dynamic environment requires constant vigilance from the global investor, especially regarding the relative performance of the U.S. market against other major indices.
The resilience of the U.S. economy has a direct, comparative effect on other global markets. To see this contrast in action, particularly how a market like Brazil's Ibovespa reacts to this global environment of U.S. strength and general global caution, we invite you to review our latest market summary. Understanding the differential performance is essential for a diversified strategy. For a deeper dive into the specific movements of the Brazilian market in this context of global dominance, please click here to see the daily report.
Final Reflection
The discussion of the "American Fortress" is not an exercise in patriotism; it is a critical recognition of economic and technological arithmetic. The next decade belongs to the United States not by chance, but because it controls the levers of global finance, energy security, and—most crucially—disruptive innovation. For the global investor, this conclusion serves as a grounding principle: betting against the U.S. economy means betting against the confluence of capital, talent, and technology. While no fortress is entirely impenetrable, the one built by the United States possesses layers of resilience and self-correction that its rivals cannot yet match. The challenge for the rest of the world is not to deny this reality, but to find strategic ways to connect and benefit from the growth emanating from within its walls.
Resources and Featured Sources
InfoMoney (Walter Maciel Column): Source of the core thesis on American monopolies.
International Monetary Fund (IMF): Global economic outlook and reserve currency data.
Bank for International Settlements (BIS): Data on global foreign exchange transactions.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Data on U.S. energy production and net exporter status.
Venture Capital Reports (Pitchbook/Crunchbase): Data on global AI and tech investment flows.
⚖️ Editorial Disclaimer
This article reflects a critical and opinionated analysis produced for the Diário do Carlos Santos, based on public information, reports, and data from sources considered reliable. It does not represent official communication or institutional positioning of any other companies or entities that may be mentioned herein.
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